Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models
In this paper, we develop and apply certain tools to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. In particular, this paper makes three contributions: One, it argues the need for such tools to evaluate the usefulness of the these models; two, it defines these tools which take the form of prior and particularly posterior predictive analysis and p...
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The forecast evaluation literature has traditionally focused on methods for assessing point-forecasts. However, in the context of risk models, interest centers on more than just a single point of the forecast distribution. For example, value-at-risk (VaR) models which are currently in extremely wide use form interval forecasts. Many other important financial calculations also involve estimates ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2012
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1639365